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Prognostication and pontification are the order of the day, as I try to make a prediction — based on the few scenes we've seen and all the clues so far — about the trajectory of Matt Smith's debut among the general public. With the obvious handicap of me not actually being part of the rank-and-file of the British general public, which means I am likely 100 percent wrong about Doctor Who's immediate future.
I'll agree with your assessment with the ratings for the season yet to come. Matt Smith will have big shoes to fill by succeeding David Tennant. Plenty of people have already said they won't bother with the show any longer; I've dubbed them as David Tennant fans, not Doctor Who fans. The Matt Smith fans will no doubt keep the show alive, not to mention Moffat's excellent writing.
I, for one, fall into another group; I'm a fan of the Doctor. I don't care who or how famous the actor is, I care about how the Doctor is portrayed. As long as the Doctor stays true to himself as a hero, a saviour, a protector, I'll happily continue to follow the series.
I was one of those who were not won over by Eccleston until "the Unquiet Dead". I have the same feeling about Matt Smith having seen the clip from "vampires of Venice". The show proved a rip-roaring success in its first year back anyway and I suspect that – unless the producers have seriously misjudged the audience – it will be so again this time round.
But, yes, it will take a while to build back to its Tennant peak (if it ever does so: RTD judged his audience brilliantly even if his stories often made little sense).